Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 122,361
2 South Dakota 113,764
3 Iowa 90,760
4 Wisconsin 90,661
5 Utah 89,094
6 Nebraska 87,872
7 Rhode Island 87,513
8 Tennessee 87,448
9 Idaho 80,485
10 Kansas 80,454
11 Indiana 79,122
12 Wyoming 78,179
13 Illinois 77,925
14 Arkansas 77,798
15 Oklahoma 77,526
16 Montana 77,427
17 Arizona 77,148
18 Alabama 76,296
19 Nevada 75,754
20 Mississippi 75,156
21 Minnesota 75,137
22 New Mexico 70,256
23 Missouri 70,020
24 Louisiana 69,304
25 Alaska 65,764
26 Florida 64,098
27 Georgia 63,372
28 Texas 63,222
29 South Carolina 63,214
30 Kentucky 63,141
31 California 62,627
32 Ohio 62,230
33 Delaware 61,958
34 Colorado 59,950
35 Massachusetts 56,244
36 New Jersey 55,880
37 Connecticut 54,591
38 North Carolina 54,539
39 Michigan 54,243
40 New York 53,223
41 Pennsylvania 52,395
42 West Virginia 51,271
43 Maryland 47,632
44 Virginia 43,059
45 District of Columbia 42,372
46 Puerto Rico 35,200
47 New Hampshire 34,807
48 Washington 34,318
49 Oregon 28,089
50 Maine 19,318
51 Hawaii 15,603
52 Vermont 12,617

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,497
2 Arizona 1,432
3 Oklahoma 1,333
4 Tennessee 1,201
5 South Carolina 1,163
6 California 1,086
7 Kentucky 942
8 Utah 937
9 North Carolina 891
10 Connecticut 834
11 Florida 828
12 New Hampshire 808
13 Delaware 776
14 Ohio 771
15 West Virginia 756
16 Nevada 680
17 New York 673
18 Alaska 624
19 Texas 611
20 Massachusetts 603
21 Mississippi 592
22 Indiana 590
23 Arkansas 589
24 Alabama 567
25 Georgia 561
26 South Dakota 557
27 Illinois 556
28 New Mexico 504
29 Virginia 498
30 Louisiana 495
31 Minnesota 495
32 Wyoming 482
33 Michigan 478
34 Missouri 463
35 Pennsylvania 463
36 Kansas 462
37 Idaho 456
38 Maine 438
39 New Jersey 429
40 Washington 426
41 Maryland 418
42 Colorado 398
43 Nebraska 375
44 Iowa 356
45 Montana 328
46 District of Columbia 307
47 Wisconsin 306
48 Vermont 246
49 Oregon 244
50 North Dakota 205
51 Puerto Rico 182
52 Hawaii 83

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,166
2 New York 1,961
3 Massachusetts 1,838
4 Rhode Island 1,751
5 Connecticut 1,730
6 North Dakota 1,730
7 South Dakota 1,710
8 Mississippi 1,641
9 Louisiana 1,631
10 Illinois 1,453
11 Michigan 1,339
12 Pennsylvania 1,280
13 Iowa 1,265
14 Indiana 1,264
15 Arkansas 1,259
16 Arizona 1,245
17 New Mexico 1,228
18 District of Columbia 1,129
19 South Carolina 1,065
20 Nevada 1,041
21 Tennessee 1,039
22 Florida 1,028
23 Georgia 1,000
24 Maryland 996
25 Alabama 994
26 Kansas 994
27 Texas 989
28 Minnesota 975
29 Missouri 967
30 Delaware 962
31 Montana 912
32 Wisconsin 905
33 Nebraska 886
34 Colorado 870
35 Idaho 818
36 Ohio 782
37 West Virginia 778
38 Wyoming 756
39 Kentucky 686
40 California 683
41 North Carolina 667
42 Oklahoma 644
43 Virginia 601
44 New Hampshire 574
45 Puerto Rico 486
46 Washington 467
47 Utah 407
48 Oregon 359
49 Alaska 285
50 Maine 267
51 Vermont 230
52 Hawaii 202

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 24
2 Connecticut 16
3 Michigan 12
4 South Carolina 12
5 Tennessee 12
6 Illinois 11
7 Massachusetts 11
8 New Mexico 11
9 Arkansas 9
10 Iowa 9
11 South Dakota 9
12 Kentucky 8
13 Indiana 7
14 Minnesota 7
15 Mississippi 7
16 New York 7
17 California 6
18 Florida 6
19 Louisiana 6
20 Nevada 6
21 West Virginia 6
22 Alaska 5
23 New Hampshire 5
24 North Carolina 5
25 Ohio 5
26 Oklahoma 5
27 Colorado 4
28 District of Columbia 4
29 Idaho 4
30 Maryland 4
31 Montana 4
32 Vermont 4
33 Maine 3
34 Nebraska 3
35 New Jersey 3
36 Pennsylvania 3
37 Puerto Rico 3
38 Utah 3
39 Arizona 2
40 Delaware 2
41 Kansas 2
42 Texas 2
43 Missouri 1
44 North Dakota 1
45 Oregon 1
46 Virginia 1
47 Washington 1
48 Alabama 0
49 Georgia 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 273,882 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 221,656 2 99
Norton Kansas 221,227 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 218,673 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 214,317 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 103,136 289 90
Richland South Carolina 66,005 1578 49
York South Carolina 57,969 1985 36
Orange California 56,802 2041 35
Pierce Washington 31,736 2837 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,154 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 860 1786 43
Richland South Carolina 825 1846 41
York South Carolina 662 2121 32
Orange California 606 2219 29
Pierce Washington 397 2590 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons